Gary's Writing Pad

I try to not get too optimistic or pessimistic about anything, centering on what I think is a realistic centric view of reality. I guess I’ve found myself on the wrong side of predictions before and realize that nothing is a given. Combined with my experience in both meteorology and military operations, I understand everything is probabilities. To predict anything happening in the future, you must realize that nothing is certain or impossible. Sure, something are likely or improbable but those are like the low ends of a Bell Curve.

But lately, I’m finding myself more pessimistic about the future. Not just my future, but for everyone’s. Just today I read the article: “UN chief fears world headed for 'wider war' over Ukraine-Russia.” This short article reflects what I’ve been thinking about Russia for a year now, and probably much longer. It seems the odds continue to grow that Russia drags the world into a much larger war, and possibly a world war. It’s tough to say how that turn out, but it’s certainly not good.

Add in resource exhaustion, climate change, disease/health challenges, animal extinctions, natural destruction, power grid failure, and technological fragility, then it starts to tip the scale more towards a future with poor outcomes. I’m not thinking about future generations either. I am worried about the next couple of years and then the decade following that. There is unrest among people and climate migration is already beginning as drought and floods are displacing people around the world. War keeps showing us that peace everywhere will probably not happen during our lifetimes.

I am not going to become a “prepper,” but I find myself making more precautions for things that could happen. I have a box of essentials packed up and am putting together a better “go bag” in case evacuation becomes necessary. I am starting to put together a better supply of emergency food and water supplies too. Recommendations were for a three day supply but I think a week is a better start.

I guess I’m just feeling safer with a little more preparedness. Who knows what tomorrow brings and whether we can ever really prepare. I doubt a week’s supplies would make a huge difference in any true emergency, but I feel better doing it than nothing at all.